12/31/06

MPC Computers Bowl

Miami v. Nevada

Favorite: Miami -3.5

O/U: 42

The inconsistent Hurricanes head to Boise to face the Nevada Wolfpack on the Smurf turf. Miami’s defense is solid, only giving up more than 17 points twice this season, but an incosistent offense is the primary reason for their 6-6 schedule. Larry Coker is a lame duck coach in today’s game, but the players have stood behind him and want to send him out with a win.

Nevada is an up-and-coming program with a talented defense that has succeeded against the mid-major teams in the WAC. Offensively, the ground game is their strength behind RBs Robert Hubbard and Luke Lippincott, but QB Jeff Rowe shouldn’t be discounted.

In the end, the Athleticsm of Miami should win out.

Take Miami -3.5

Take the OVER (42)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 14-6

Totals: 12-8

Overall: 26-14

Happy New Year. For the bowl games on January 1, 2007.

Outback Bowl

Tennessee v. Penn State

Favorite: Tennessee -4

Take Penn State +4

Take the UNDER (41)

Cotton Bowl

Auburn v. Nebraska

Favorite: Auburn -1.5 (opened -2.5)

Take Nebraska +1.5

Take the OVER (46)

Capital One Bowl

Arkansas v. Wisconsin

Favorite: Arkansas -2.5 (opened -1)

Take Wisconsin +2.5

Take the OVER (46)

Gator Bowl

Georgia Tech v. West Virginia

Favorite: West Virginia -10 (opened -7.5)

Take West virginia -10

Take the UNDER (47)

Rose Bowl

USC v. Michigan

Favorite: Michigan -1 (opened -1.5)

Take Michigan -1

Take the OVER (46)

Fiesta Bowl

Boise State v. Oklahoma

Favorite: Oklahoma -7

Take Oklahoma -7

Take the OVER (50)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 14-7

Totals: 12-9

Overall: 26-16

12/30/06

Meineke Bowl

Navy v. Boston College

Favorite: Bosteon College -7

O/U: 47.5

When it comes to offense, the Midshipman are averaging over 325 yards per game on the ground and only 59 yards per game passing. The going could be rough for Navy as Boston College is very tough against the run. Given BC’s penchant for interceptions, if they force Navy into the passing game QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada will really need to watch his throws.

Take Boston College -7

Take the OVER (47.5)

Alamo Bowl

Iowa v. Texas

Favorite: Texas -9 (opened -10.5)

O/U: 53.5

Texas dropped their final two games of the season with freshman QB Colt McCoy getting beat up in both games. iowa had a disappointing season in many regards and just won’t be able to keep up with the athleticism of Texas.

Take Texas -9

Take the OVER (53.5)

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Virginia Tech v. Georgia

Favorite: Virginia Tech -3

O/U: 37.5

Defense will rule the day at Tech’s D has only given up 10 touchdowns on the year. Offensively for VT look for an early explosion to put Georgia down early. We see some late game score to push the over.

Take Viginia Tech -3

Take the OVER (37.5)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 14-3

Totals: 10-7

Overall: 24-10 – 70.6%

Music City Bowl

Sun Bowl

Liberty Bowl

Insight.com Bowl

Champs Sports Bowl

Music City Bowl

Clemson v. Kentucky

Favorite: Clemson -9.5 (opened -11)

O/U: 57.5

Simply put, Kentucky does not have the talent on hand to stop Clemson from moving the ball. The late season slide from Clemson is having a nice affect on the line as the public has moved money on Kentucky. Clemson wins this game, and wins big while the Wildcats have a terrible night both offensively and defensively.

Take Clemson -9.5

Take the UNDER (57.5)

Sun Bowl

Oregon State v. Missouri

Favorite: Oregon State -3.5 (opened -3)

O/U: 52

Mizzou started the season a perfect 6-0, then they hit the meat of their conference schedule – easily one of the toughest in college football this season. Oregon State traveled an opposite road, starting the season poorly, but then making up for it, cruising through the Pac-10 with a major upset of USC.

We think Missouri will surprise Oregon State and shut down their passing game in a straight up win.

Take Missouri +3.5

Take the OVER (52)

Liberty Bowl

Houston v. South Carolina

Favorite: South Carolina -5.5 (opened -6.5)

O/U: 56

Houston has the statistics on their side in this game, but they haven’t faced the talent that South Carolina has. Based on the competitive level of each team’s conference, South Carolina has the talent and the big-game experience to send Houston packing.

Take South Carolina -5.5

Take the OVER (56)

Insight.com Bowl

Texas Tech v. Minnesota

Favorite: Texas Tech -6.5

O/U: 66

Mike Leach plays one kind of football, offensive. Not known for their defense, Texas Tech’s answer to winning is to score more points than the other team. Minnesota was up and down on the season, playing tough against traditional Big-10 rivals, then letting up against weaker opponents. The them of this game will be score early and often with Minnesota getting worn down late.

Take Texas Tech -6.5

Take the OVER (66)

Champs Sports Bowl

Purdue v. Maryland

Favorite: Purdue -1 (opened Maryland -3.5)

O/U: 53

On paper Purdue has the numbers that justify the line swinging in the way that it has. However, Purdue is giving up an average of 430+ yards per game in offense and frankly this defensive number is scares us. You can bet Maryland has noticed their opponent is give up more yardage than the Terps have been able to put up offensively and the game plan will be to exploit the holes. Maryland isn’t the popular choice in this game, but popularity doesn’t always bring home the green. Purdue will go down early and struggle to get back in the game.

Take Maryland +1

Take the OVER (53)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 11-1

Totals: 6-6

Overall: 17-7 – 70.8%

12/28/2006

Independence Bowl

Oklahoma State v. Alabama

Favorite: Oklahoma State -2 (opened -3.5)

O/U: 50

Both teams are coming off late-season skids, Alabama losing 4 of their last 5 and Oklahoma State dropping 3 of their final 4. However, both teams included losses to top-20 teams during that time. Oklahoma State plays classic Big-12 football with an emphasis on the run behind their RB trio Dantrelle Savage, Keith Toston and Mike Hamilton who average a combined 160+ yards per game. The strong arm of Bobby Reid is also worth mentioning as he threw for 23 touchdowns on the season with only 10 interceptions and a QB rating north of 150.

Alabama fired coach Mike Shula and heads into this game with d-coordinator Joe Kines as interim head coach – and is not in the running for permanent job. ‘Bama’s defense is solid, but their offense leaves much to be desired. QB John Parker Wilson is the primary threat with his arm, but we can’t help but notice that they really have a tough time getting the ball in the endzone on the ground (only 8 on the year) which will make the going tough against the Cowboy defense.

Take Oklahoma State -2

Take the OVER (50)

Texas Bowl

Rutgers v. Kansas State

Favorite: Rutgers -7.5 (opened -7)

O/U: 44

No contest. Every time Kansas State has come up against a solid defense, they’ve folded like an aluminum can. First year coach Ron Prince has shown some promise with this team, and with freshman QB Josh Freeman, but they are still a year or two away from any real contention in the Big 12. Take away Freeman’s targets with the defense and the Wildcats are left without any options.

Rutgers is in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in school history. Their defense is one of the best in the nation and their offense is no slouch either. Gary Schiano has done wonders with this team and if not for a surprise loss to Cincinnati, could have been a BCS team. They will be too strong for K-state and may even cover the over by themselves.

Take Rutgers -7.5

Take the OVER (44)

Holiday Bowl

Texas A&M v. California

Favorite: California -3 (opened -5)

O/U: 53

The Aggies are among the best in the Big-12 despite finishing third in the South. One-point losses to Nebraska and Oklahoma (who met in the Big-12 Championship) and the whooping they put on Colt McCoy and Texas show you the strength of the Texas A&M team. Defense rules the day, but their real strength is in the secondary where they’ve held teams to under 190 passing yards per game.

Cal, by many regards, had a disappointing season. Opening the year at the highest preseason ranking in team history and promptly dumping the opener did not set the stage the Bears wanted. Cal has relied on QB Nathan Longshore’s arm to get the job done, but he will have a tough time against the Aggie D. Fortunately, the Bears do have a ground threat with Marshawn Lynch, and he will likely be the only bright spot for Cal in this game.

Take Texas A&M +3

Take the UNDER (53)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 9-0

Totals: 4-5

Overall: 13-5

A quick reminder to our new and repeat visitors. GridIronPicks.com is giving away our side and total picks for each and every college bowl game during the 2006-07 season absolutely free.

Each morning, prior to Noon Eastern time, we will be posting our selections for the day’s games on the homepage of GridIronPicks.com.

Our record with the conclusion of the games from 12/28/06:

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 11-1

Totals: 6-6

Overall: 17-7 – 70.8%

12/27/200

Emerald Bowl

Florida State v. UCLA

Favorite: UCLA -3 (opened -4.5)

O/U: 41 (opened 39)

Sure, UCLA knocked USC out of the national championship picture in their final game of the season, but this is not a good offensive UCLA team. However, they do have a defense that is giving up less than 90 yards per game on the ground and a secondary that is capable of putting some serious dents in the passing game.

Florida State also had a down year this year but their defense is similarly tough against both the run and the pass. Offensively, we see a slight edge with FSU offense behind the arm of QB Drew Weatherford (with the other QB,Xavier Lee, likely to see action as well). FSU’s offense has been built around the pass this season with the running game only being used to keep their opponents honest.

We like Florida State in a very tight game that likely won’t see a lot of offense.

Take Florida State +3

Take the UNDER (39) down to a 38, if it drops below 38, swing back to the OVER.

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 8-0

Totals: 4-4

Overall: 12-4

12/25/06

Motor City Bowl

Middle Tennessee State v. Central Michigan

Favorite: Central Michigan -7.5 (opened -11.5)

O/U: 51.5

The line on this game has been hammered due to the departure of coach Brian Kelly who left to take over the Cincinnati job. Interim head coach, Jeff Quinn, has been with the Chippewas for three seasons and is an adequate replacement for the bowl game. Keep in mind that Quinn was also the offensive coordinator this past season which means you will likely see exactly the same team that played all season long.

Middle Tennessee State’s weakness is there offense, they simply don’t have the firepower to compete in this game.

We like Central Michigan in a big win.

Take Central Michigan -7.5 (to a -9)

Take the OVER (51.5)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 7-0

Totals: 4-3

Overall: 11-3

12/23/06

PapaJohns.com Bowl

South Florida v. East Carolina

Favorite: South Florida -5 (opened -4)

O/U: 43

This game comes down to one thing, South Florida’s defense. East Carolina will struggle the entire game moving the ball while South Florida will find many holes on the ground and in the air. In the end, we see an easy 7 point win by the Bulls and the Pirates walk the plank.

Take South Florida -5 (good to a -7)

Take the UNDER (43)

New Mexico Bowl

San Jose State v. New Mexico

Favorite: New Mexico -3 (opened -4.5)

O/U: 47

The Lobos haven’t won a game in 45 years and frankly, we are bit stumped as to why the Lobos were even a favorite in this game. New Mexico has shown nothing this season other than the fact that they give up a bunch of points.

Sure, San Jose State isn’t a powerhouse in college football, but they do have the talent to get the job done. RB Yonus Davis could have a field day on the ground.

Dennis Franchione may be able to do something with team in the future, but there won’t be a win this year. We see a straight up San Jose State win in a game where you might not see much defense.

Take San Jose State +3

Take the OVER (47)

Armed Forces Bowl

Utah v. Tulsa

Favorite: Utah -1 (opened -2.5)

O/U: 49

Next year will be an important year for Utah coach Kyle Whittingham. In his second year after replacing Urban Meyer, he’s taking the Utes to their second bowl game – but more importantly, coming off of tough loss v. BYU. Talent-wise, the Utes still have Meyer’s recruits in the house and that will be the difference maker.

Tulsa doesn’t seem to have their act together in big games as evidence by their late season losses to Houston, Rice and SMU. However, those losses can also be pegged squarely on the offense, as the Golden Hurricane defense keeps them in the game.

While both teams have pretty solid defense, we think this game will take on the aura of an offensive showcase since mid-majors want to make a splash on TV, and thus, we’re leaning towards the over with Utah prevailing on talent in the shoot-out.

Take Utah -1

Take the OVER (49)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 3-0

Totals: 3-0

Overall: 6-0

12/24/06

Hawaii Bowl

Arizona State v. Hawaii

Favorite: Hawaii -7 (opened -8.5)

O/U: 72.5 (opened 75)

Arizona State is playing this game with a lame duck coaching staff. Lucky for them, Hawaii isn’t known for their defense.

Hawaii, playing a home game, sports the number one ranked offense in passing, scoring and total offense. This is a team that believes in scoring early and often.

ASU has had trouble getting their offense going this season and we see an easy win by Hawaii.

Take Hawaii -7

Take the OVER (72.5)

2006-07 Bowl Record to Date:

Sides: 6-0

Totals: 4-2

Overall: 10-2