For Monday, May 1

Take Los Angeles Dodgers (Penny) -120 at Arizona (Vargas)

Take Colorado (Jennings) +165 at Atlana (Hudson)

Starting the month of May, we are down 2.75 units for the season on very light action during the month of April.

A particularly nasty bout of the flu contracted on the return leg of my vacation has put me out of commission for the last few days. MLB picks will return a week later than anticipated on Monday May 1.

See you Monday, and my apologies for the inconvenience.

As always, we recommend Gill Alexander’s excellent Beating The Book podcast in our absence.

Tristan

For Wednesday, April 12

Take Cincinnati +145 at Chicago

With a win, take the following:

Colorado +130 at Arizona

San Francisco -150 v. Houston

For Tuesday, April 11

Take Oakland -125 at Minnesota

For Monday, April, 10

Take Baltimore -120 at Tampa Bay

A full week of baseball is in the books and we are down 1/2 of a unit (through 4/10/06). One of the reasons why we don’t push our wagers the first 3 weeks of the season is that a few days of erratic play are possible until pitchers get a few starts under their belts.

Some things we’ve noticed that might not be getting too much ink from other sources:

1) Curt Schilling came out stronger than we expected. 14 IP, 9k and 1.93 ERA. The moneyline hasn’t reacted yet, so there is some value at anything under -160.

2) Yankees. An offensive powerhouse that seems to be lacking any sense of urgency. The line is always bumped up a dime or two for the Yankees, and conversely some good dog plays will be likely – especially in mid-week road games.

3) Colorado. 3-0 on the road, 1-2 at home. We aren’t ready to start pushing cash their way, but the road could be good for the Rocks by getting away from the thin-air of Denver and keeping them focused on small ball (their strength) instead of swinging for the fences.

4) Pittsburgh. If you ever find the Pirates as a favorite, bet the other side – unless they manage to put together a 3-game winning streak in April and give themselves some confidence.

5) The Royals adding Reggie Sanders. Sanders adds a solid bat and will take some of the pressure off of Mike Sweeney. Half the line-up could easily end the season in the range of a 300 batting average. We’re not talking a pennant here, but if they can smooth out the pitching staff, an 80-win season is a possibility.

6. Minnesota Twins – something funky is going down in Minnesota. With a team that seems to have some chemistry issues – team chemistry, not substance abuse – an exceptionally strong early schedule could spell disaster. Series against Oakland and the Yankees are on tap this week; unfortunately, a 1-11 start to the season is not out of the realm of possibility.

A programming note:

Beginning Saturday, April 15, our Free Baseball Picks will be on hiatus for 8 days, returning on Sunday, April 23. During our down time, we point you to Gill Alexander’s Beating the Book podcast.

For Sunday, April 9

Take New York Yankees -110 at Los Angeles Angels

For Saturday, April 8

Take St. Louis -130 at Chicago Cubs

With an early win, we will also take the following:

Take San Diego -120 v. Colorado

Take Seattle +110 v. Oakland

For Friday, April 7

Take Cincinnati -115 v. Pittsburgh

On of our objectives for this baseball season is to maximize our upside potential while minimizing our downside. To achieve this, we will be doing some conditional late game picks keying on wins from an early game. Today offers our first such conditional picks.

For Thursday, April 6

Take St. Louis -125 at Philadelphia

With a win, we will also take the following:

Take Arizona +115 at Colorado

Take Oakland -120 at Seattle