I’m off to an exceptionally hot start in the NFL, and with it a good opportunity to talk about win percentages and money management.

Any given week during the season, I’ll receive a few emails with regard to money management and why I don’t offer the proverbial bet-the-house-lock-of-the-week. I am a strong believer in a sound money management system and that consistent results will profit more in the long run than chasing the big game. Incidentally, this also separates me from many of those in the sports handicapping business; not to mention the fact I’ve been giving my picks away for free for the last 2 seasons.

My philosophy is simple, start the season with a cash bankroll, bet a consistent amount each game (any where from 2-5% of your initial stake, depending upon your level of risk) and when your bankroll reaches a predetermined multiple, re-evaluate your 2-5% stake. For example, a gambler starts the season with a $1000 stake, determines his multiple for re-evaluating his stake is when he doubles the initial $1000, sets his wager amount at 5% and assumes the -110 vig on wagers – I know online books have skewed this slightly with their moneyline point plays.

Over the course of 17 week NFL season, this gambler wagers 4 games per weekend (68 games total) and manages a 58% winning edge (winning 39.4 games, or 39 as used in the following calculations).
Over the course of the 17 weeks, he will have increased his bankroll to $1355. That is a net increase of 35.5% in four months.

If the same gambler increased his winning edge to 60% (40.8 games, which I will round down to 40 games), over the course of the same 17 weeks, he will have increased his bankroll to $1544, a 54.4% return in 17 weeks.

62% winning edge (42.16 games, rounded to 42 for the example) will increase the bankroll to $1670, a 67% return.

Once this gambler hit his re-evaluation amount, in this case $2000 he would then double his wagering amount and continue. Now, re-evaluation amounts are arbitrary. Personally, I use an eight-week cycle these days and readjust my wagers based on my bankroll every 8 weeks.

Business travel this week and haven’t had proper time to do my analysis. There is a slim chance I’ll have NFL on Sunday morning, but if not, I’ll be back with Monday Night Football.

My apologies for any inconveniences.

Stuck in meetings all afternoon. Free College Picks will be posted late tonight. Follow me on Twitter @football_picks or subscribe to the RSS feed to be notified when my picks are posted.

My apologies for any inconveniences.

A little late getting back from a family vacation. Picks will be posted later tonight.