argh. Lost my write-ups in the copy paste process. Here’s the picks, and I’ll get the write-ups rewritten shortly.

Sorry about the write-up issue. I’ve rewritten from my notes. Not as polished as they were. Don’t forget to backup your data (or at least don’t Cut from your text file and hit save, get distracted and mistakenly copy something fresh in your clipboard before you had the chance to paste).

The Baylor Bears are playing for one thing, a bowl game. With Kansas State coming to town they are primed to do it. K-State rebounded from the beat down they received to Nebraska to pummel a very, very bad Kansas team 59-7 last week. Baylor is decent against the run which should hold the Wildcats to the teens on offense. Robert Griffin is a terrific QB and can beat you on the ground or in the air.

Take Baylor -6.5 v. Kansas State

Nebraska got knocked off in a grudge match last week at the hands of Texas, but we’ve seen the Huskers in a similar sport before when they traveled to Washington earlier in the season. I think Taylor Martinez bounces back and Nebraska makes a statement that last week’s game was a fluke. Oklahoma State is unbeaten on the season, but their lack of defense will hurt them here. OSU is also played anyone of relative strength this year and is in for a smashing.

Take Nebraska -5.5 at Oklahoma State

I just don’t buy LSU this year. Sure they’ve snaked past 3 ranked opponents on the season and they have a tough defense that is only giving up 83.6 yards per game on the ground. But of those three top-25 wins, two are gone from the list. Auburn is an offensive machine and while they haven’t needed to go to the air that much to win this season, they have the ability in Cam Newton who is completing 65.6% of his passes and averaging over 125 rushing yards per game. My numbers project in the range of 35-20 every way I’ve gone at it.

Take Auburn -6 v. LSU

I have a fourth game on the cards this week with Texas Tech. Colorado continues to be bad, and it looks like coach Dan Hawkins will be out at the end of the year. I think they’ve already thrown in the towel and are looking for a fresh start in the PAC-10(12)

Take Texas Tech -3 at Colorado

While Oregon is the number one team in the country right now, I’m a little hesitant on the line. For one thing, Oregon hasn’t been winning by blowout. If fact, their last 3 winning margins have come in at 20, 21, and 11. The Oregon running game is well suited to chewing up the clock. We all know their offense is explosive, but they also found themselves #1 by attrition on a bye week.

UCLA is on the upswing under Rick Neuheisel, but still a couple of years away from a team with national impact. Still, a win against #1 Oregon would be of signature-caliber. UCLA is also coming off a bye week and have a hobbled quarterback in Kevin Prince – Richard Brehaut waits in the wings if Prince can’t go. I actually think Brehaut has the better arm and this might end up being a blessing in disguise.

Tough call tonight, but the fact is Oregon isn’t winning by blowouts.

Take UCLA +26.5 at Oregon

There has been a lot of discounting of the Spartans as they fall in to a hangover effect game coming off of two straight wins to ranked opponents. I mentioned last week that the real factor is Dantonio; the Spartans have rallied around their ailing coach and that is an intangible that is tough to overcome. Besides, the Spartan defense has proven tough against the run and Illinois is for all intents and purposes, a one-dimensional running team.

Take Michigan State -7 v. Illinois

I wouldn’t want to be Mississippi this week. With ‘Bama coming off The Loss, you know they will come out firing. But the key for me is this is a turning point game for Ole Miss, one that spells doom for the rest of their season as they face the first of three-straight ranked opponents. I project a 36-10 type of score.

Take Alabama -20.5 v. Mississippi

Iowa rolls in to Ann Arbor allowing 63 rushing yards per game. Let that sink in. And coming off a bye week that gives the wounded Hawkeyes an opportunity to heal up and game plan. Sure Denard Robinson has skills – he is a Heisman candidate – but Michigan lacks a defense to keep them in the game against such a strong team. I like Iowa with a runaway win, and what could be the linchpin in the ouster of RichRod.

Take Iowa -3.5 at Michigan

Others to watch. Pretty strong leans but discounting for one reason or another.

Nevada -6.5 at Hawaii (strange things happen to Nevada when they visit the islands)

USC -2.5 v. Cal (sharp money on USC, but I’m not sold on either team this year)

Nebraska -9.5 v. Texas (The numbers favor the Huskers, but their last year in Big 12, intangibles from last year’s Big 12 championship game debacle, and the Orange owning of the Huskers in Big 12 play. Besides, I’ll be at the game.)

The Huskers, after a dismal offensive outing against South Dakota State open Big 12 confernce play down the road at Kansas State.

Although neither team has played anyone of serious consequence, Kansas State did beat on the now surging UCLA Bruins. And Nebraska utterly dismantled Washington’s offense.

I don’t expect much to stand in the way of Nebraska’s running game as KSU is giving up almost 200 yards per game on the ground. While Nebraska is still untested by a strong running game, and the Huskers have yet to be forced in to trying to win a game through the air. QB Taylor Martinez has 3 TD tosses on the year vs. 2 INTs.

I like Nebraska 28-10

Take Nebraska -11.5 at Kansas State.

I give props to UNLV for their non-conference schedule with Nevada now being the third ranked opponent they’ve played in 2010. However, the have been getting shredded on the ground and here comes Nevada’s QB Colin Kaepernick to add to it. Nevada has won the last five. Make it six now and by 3 touchdowns, easy.

Take Nevada -20.5 at UNLV

The familiarity the Steve Sarkisian has with the USC program pushed me initially to Washington. But moreso than that. Washington has had two weeks to lick their wounds after being absolutely destroyed by Nebraska. I think that, more than anything, will fire up the Huskies. I do like USC, but I think their secondary is too young and they’ve lost a step or two in speed. I see a USC win, somewhere in the 30-27 range

Take Washington +10 at USC

Michigan State coach Mike Dantonio will be back in the stadium this week, albeit coaching from upstairs. However, the key for this game is Wisconsin’s dual threat offense between the arm of QB Scott Tolzien and the rushing attack of John Clay and James White, I don’t the Spartans will be able to match up enough to keep this close. I actually had this game projected as 11 point win by the Badgers 35-24, so I’m happy only laying the pair.

Take Wisconsin -2 at Michigan State

A tough loss for me last night with Oklahoma State. Unbelievable lack of defense in the 4th quarter. Still positive on the year, but I think Saturday will make up for it.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 11-9-1, +1.00 Units, 55%
All NFL: 11-6-1, +3.30 Units, 64.7%
MNF-specific: 5-3, +1.70 Units, 62.5%

A Big 12 conference matchup of a pair of unranked, unbeaten teams in Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. High flying offenses, OSU averaging 57 points per game, A&M averaging 41 points per game. On paper, A&M looks like they may have a better defense, but don’t let that fool you. Next to Nebraska, they may have played the weakest non-conference schedule in the Big 12 AND Florida International nearly pulled the upset two weeks ago.

The key for me tonight though is turnovers. Texas A&M comes in to the game at -2, while Oklahoma State is sitting at +3. That is enough of an edge in my book to set a 10-14 win by the Cowboys. I’m projecting a 48-35 win by Oklahoma State. The total is sitting at 66, so if you want to total up, you know where I’m leaning. However, my only wager is on the side.

Take Oklahoma State -4 v. Texas A&M

See you tomorrow for a possible Friday pick and my Saturday College Football lineup. My season results below, include multi-unit plays. However, from this point forward, I am only going to grade my picks as single unit plays. I may indicate where I’m wagering multiple units, but please use your own money-management strategy to dictate your wagers when including my handicapping in your decision-making process.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 11-8-1, +2.00 Units, 57.9%
All NFL: 11-6-1, +3.30 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 5-3, +1.70 Units, 75%

Pulled down a quick unit on MIami last night, and if you missed it, I’ve posted a play for tonight’s TCU/SMU matchup and Saturday’s UFC 119.

Three games on the books for tomorrow, all evening contests. Public odds accurate as of 5:30pm EDT via donbest.com.

I’ve said before, until Butch Jones can right the ship in his first year as head coach following the departure of Brian Kelley, I don’t have any confidence on Cincy. That said, Oklahoma has been inconsistent this year and may be looking ahead to next week’s matchup with Texas. I’m discounting the look-ahead effect, as this is a Sooner team that needs the tune-up to get off on right foot for next week.

Take Oklahoma -14 at Cincinnati

Nevada heads to BYU. Let me just say this: BYU is giving up an average of 271 rushing yards per game. Nevada is averaging over 300 rushing yards per game. ‘nough said, the Kaepernick for Heisman show continues.

Take Nevada -4 at BYU

Oregon visits Arizona State. The Ducks are flying to town and that spells bad news for the Sun Devils. Here’s the scoop though, ASU is terribly one-dimensional as was shown last week at Wisconsin as the Badgers keyed-in on pass defense and forced them to the ground. A hard fought 1-point loss against a top-ranked opponent can deflate a team and with the superior offense and defense of the Ducks coming to town. No contest.

Take Oregon -11.5 at Arizona

I like Oregon and Nevada as double unit plays, but please adhere to your own bankroll management strategy. A few of my leans for you as they generated some positive feedback last week:

• Ball State +28 at Iowa. Last week’s injuries may take a bite out of the Hawkeye offense, but I’m taking a wait and see week.
• Penn Sate -13.5 v. Temple. 6 point move in the line dropped it to the attractive range for Penn State. Could be a 10-7 type of game
• South Dakota State +44 at Nebraska. I expect the Huskers to rest the starters early, but with Pelini at the helm, you never know.
• South Carolina +3 at Auburn. SC is monstrously tough against the run and Auburn may have difficulties moving the ball.

See you on Saturday with some NFL picks.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 9-6-1, +2.20 Units*, 60%
All NFL: 8-5-1, +2.50 Units, 61.5%
MNF-specific: 4-2, +1.80 Units, 75%

*includes multi-unit plays.