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October 3, 2010 By

Free NFL Picks for 10/3/10

Atlanta is firing on all cylinders now after their week 1 loss at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, San Francisco is in a tail spin. Once preseason favorites, the Niners have since dropped their first 3 games, fired the offensive coordinator and the defense – which was supposed to be dominant – has given up an average of 29 points per game. Plus throw in the trend of losses by west coast teams playing the early game in the East.

Take Atlanta -7 v. San Francisco

Cincinnati has too many offense weapons and I think this is the week QB Carson Palmer finally starts to use T.O. and Ocho Cinco. As for the Browns, 0-3, questions at starting QB spot with Delhomme’s ankle still bothering him.

Take Cincinnati -3 v at Cleveland

I’m not going to question the Steelers one bit. Charlie Batch got it done last week witha 38 point output in a battle of unbeatens. Baltimore’s defense is top-notch, but they also let Cleveland hang 17 on them last week.

Take Pittsburgh -2.5 v. Baltimore

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October 1, 2010 By

College Football Picks for Saturday 10/2/2010

I give props to UNLV for their non-conference schedule with Nevada now being the third ranked opponent they’ve played in 2010. However, the have been getting shredded on the ground and here comes Nevada’s QB Colin Kaepernick to add to it. Nevada has won the last five. Make it six now and by 3 touchdowns, easy.

Take Nevada -20.5 at UNLV

The familiarity the Steve Sarkisian has with the USC program pushed me initially to Washington. But moreso than that. Washington has had two weeks to lick their wounds after being absolutely destroyed by Nebraska. I think that, more than anything, will fire up the Huskies. I do like USC, but I think their secondary is too young and they’ve lost a step or two in speed. I see a USC win, somewhere in the 30-27 range

Take Washington +10 at USC

Michigan State coach Mike Dantonio will be back in the stadium this week, albeit coaching from upstairs. However, the key for this game is Wisconsin’s dual threat offense between the arm of QB Scott Tolzien and the rushing attack of John Clay and James White, I don’t the Spartans will be able to match up enough to keep this close. I actually had this game projected as 11 point win by the Badgers 35-24, so I’m happy only laying the pair.

Take Wisconsin -2 at Michigan State

A tough loss for me last night with Oklahoma State. Unbelievable lack of defense in the 4th quarter. Still positive on the year, but I think Saturday will make up for it.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 11-9-1, +1.00 Units, 55%
All NFL: 11-6-1, +3.30 Units, 64.7%
MNF-specific: 5-3, +1.70 Units, 62.5%

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September 30, 2010 By

Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State – Thursday Night College Football

A Big 12 conference matchup of a pair of unranked, unbeaten teams in Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. High flying offenses, OSU averaging 57 points per game, A&M averaging 41 points per game. On paper, A&M looks like they may have a better defense, but don’t let that fool you. Next to Nebraska, they may have played the weakest non-conference schedule in the Big 12 AND Florida International nearly pulled the upset two weeks ago.

The key for me tonight though is turnovers. Texas A&M comes in to the game at -2, while Oklahoma State is sitting at +3. That is enough of an edge in my book to set a 10-14 win by the Cowboys. I’m projecting a 48-35 win by Oklahoma State. The total is sitting at 66, so if you want to total up, you know where I’m leaning. However, my only wager is on the side.

Take Oklahoma State -4 v. Texas A&M

See you tomorrow for a possible Friday pick and my Saturday College Football lineup. My season results below, include multi-unit plays. However, from this point forward, I am only going to grade my picks as single unit plays. I may indicate where I’m wagering multiple units, but please use your own money-management strategy to dictate your wagers when including my handicapping in your decision-making process.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 11-8-1, +2.00 Units, 57.9%
All NFL: 11-6-1, +3.30 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 5-3, +1.70 Units, 75%

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September 27, 2010 By

Monday Night Football – Green Bay at Chicago

Green Bay at Chicago
Favorite: Green Bay -3.5
O/U: 46.5

Last year Green Bay took both games against Chicago 15-21 and 14-21. That is a prety good barometer of how this game will play out tonight. My opinion of Chicago is still out and I think last week’s win against Dallas said more about Dallas than it did about Chicago. Cutler is still a gun slinger but the Packers have improved in the secondary. I won’t be surprised to see a couple picks from Green Bay especially since Chicago offensive coordinater Mike Martz dismisses the occasional interception as part of his game plan.

The biggest key though is going to be at the line, I don’t expect much running room from either team; the Packers without Ryan Grant, and Chicago who is generally unable to the get the running game going anyway.

I project a bit of a scoring increase over last season, but still ducking under the total: Green Bay 26 – Chicago 17

Take Green Bay -3.5 at Chicago
Take the UNDER (46.5)

I also released a baseball pick today on Twitter (@football_picks).

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 11-8-1, +2.00 Units*, 57.9%
All NFL: 10-6-1, +3.40 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 4-2, +1.80 Units, 75%

*includes multi-unit plays.

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September 25, 2010 By

Free Sunday NFL Picks for 9/26/2010

Up and down the line, some plays of value, but all three here are on visiting favorites. Not something I’m usually looking for, but I think these play very well.

Up first, Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay. I said a few times in the past that the Steelers are a tremendous football team when Leftwich is in at QB – not taking anything away from Roesthlisberger at all. But Leftwich gives the Steelers the abilit to put points on the board. Tampa Bay squeaked by Cleveland and wasn’t overly dominating at Carolina last week. The line has jumped up to 4.5, but that is still the play. I project 27-13 (my projection is slightly skewed with QB change for Pittsburgh, so don’t take that as a call for the Over as well).

Take Pittsburgh -4.5 at Tampa Bay

Kansas City’s surprise start runs aground this week. After a 2 point win against Cleveland, the surprises they had in store to start the sseason are now widely known. San Francisco is tough on the ground against the run and force Cassell to beat the through the air – something I don’t see happening. San Francisco is hungry for their first win and I think they come out ready to roll. I project 27-17.

Take San Fancisco-4.5 at Kansas City

In Denver for the late afternoon game, there are two things you need to pay attention to. 1. Indy absolutely dismantled the Giants last Sunday night and 2. The Broncos are without Knowshon Moreno, and with the crew that sits behind him, Denver will be relying on Orton’s arm to get the job done. Indy should score early and often and there won’t be much Denver can do to stop it. I see Indy 33-16.

Take Indianapolis -5.5 at Denver

I’ll get recent results updated upon completion of Oregon at Arizona State.

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September 24, 2010 By

College Football Picks for 9/24/10

Pulled down a quick unit on MIami last night, and if you missed it, I’ve posted a play for tonight’s TCU/SMU matchup and Saturday’s UFC 119.

Three games on the books for tomorrow, all evening contests. Public odds accurate as of 5:30pm EDT via donbest.com.

I’ve said before, until Butch Jones can right the ship in his first year as head coach following the departure of Brian Kelley, I don’t have any confidence on Cincy. That said, Oklahoma has been inconsistent this year and may be looking ahead to next week’s matchup with Texas. I’m discounting the look-ahead effect, as this is a Sooner team that needs the tune-up to get off on right foot for next week.

Take Oklahoma -14 at Cincinnati

Nevada heads to BYU. Let me just say this: BYU is giving up an average of 271 rushing yards per game. Nevada is averaging over 300 rushing yards per game. ‘nough said, the Kaepernick for Heisman show continues.

Take Nevada -4 at BYU

Oregon visits Arizona State. The Ducks are flying to town and that spells bad news for the Sun Devils. Here’s the scoop though, ASU is terribly one-dimensional as was shown last week at Wisconsin as the Badgers keyed-in on pass defense and forced them to the ground. A hard fought 1-point loss against a top-ranked opponent can deflate a team and with the superior offense and defense of the Ducks coming to town. No contest.

Take Oregon -11.5 at Arizona

I like Oregon and Nevada as double unit plays, but please adhere to your own bankroll management strategy. A few of my leans for you as they generated some positive feedback last week:

  • Ball State +28 at Iowa. Last week’s injuries may take a bite out of the Hawkeye offense, but I’m taking a wait and see week.
  • Penn Sate -13.5 v. Temple. 6 point move in the line dropped it to the attractive range for Penn State. Could be a 10-7 type of game
  • South Dakota State +44 at Nebraska. I expect the Huskers to rest the starters early, but with Pelini at the helm, you never know.
  • South Carolina +3 at Auburn. SC is monstrously tough against the run and Auburn may have difficulties moving the ball.

See you on Saturday with some NFL picks.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 9-6-1, +2.20 Units*, 60%
All NFL: 8-5-1, +2.50 Units, 61.5%
MNF-specific: 4-2, +1.80 Units, 75%

*includes multi-unit plays.

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September 23, 2010 By

TCU at SMU – Friday Night Lights

TCU’s defense has quietly been one of the strong components of their football team. While I think the game will have an offensive overtone. SMU might be able to keep up early and find the endzone for themselves, but I don’t think it will be sustainable for four quarters.

On the total, my projects come up on the number so I’d recommend staying away. As for the side, see a TCU win, 34-23:

Take SMU +19 v. TCU

UFC119 and Saturday college football picks coming on Friday.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 9-6-1, +2.20 Units*, 60%
All NFL: 8-5-1, +2.50 Units, 61.5%
MNF-specific: 4-2, +1.80 Units, 75%

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September 23, 2010 By

Miami at Pittsburgh – Thursday Night College Football

Speed will be the name of the game tonight and I don’t think Pitt has what it takes to keep up. Miami’s offense plays right in to Pitt’s weakness on defense

Take Miami -4 at Pittsburgh

Upcoming posts, UFC odds, picks and my wagers coming Friday evening. Weekend College picks will be posted Friday afternoon and Sunday NFL picks coming on Saturday. Subscribe to my RSS Feed and follow @football_picks on Twitter to stay updated.

Split my picks on MNF, lost the side, won the total, season results have been updated below.
2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 8-6-1, +1.20 Units*, 57%
All NFL: 8-5-1, +2.50 Units, 61.5%
MNF-specific: 4-2, +1.80 Units, 75%

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September 20, 2010 By

New Orleans at San Francisco – Monday Night Football

New Orleans at San Francisco – Monday Night Football
Favorite: New Orleans -5
O/U: 43.5

I sense that San Francisco will be looking to make a statement tonight after last week’s beatdown at the hands of the Seahawks. Alex Smith, despite throwing for 225 yards, handed the ball over to the ‘hawks on a pair of INTs. Frank Gore was hampered on the ground. On the other side of the ball, the defense played well, though hampered by short field situations.

The high-flying Saints were limited to 14 points in their opener against the Vikings, but I think it is clear after yesterday’s game that the Viking D is solid. Given the strides many other teams took on offense this week, I expect a breakout by the Saints. Pierre Thomas on the ground and Reggie Bush out of the backfield on passes could shred the Niner’s defense. Assuming Garret Hartley (no relation that I’m aware of) gets his foot realigned, there’s at least 6 more points on the board.

I’m projecting a final score of 30-17, which also puts this north of the total. I also expect the line to creep up a bit, but should still cover easily.

Take New Orleans -5 at San Francisco
Take the OVER (43.5)

I may have a couple baseball plays this week, stay tuned.

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 8-6-1, +1.20 Units*, 57%
All NFL: 7-4-1, +2.60 Units, 63.6%
MNF-specific: 3-1, +1.90 Units, 75%

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September 18, 2010 By

Sunday NFL Picks – 9/19/10

I’ve had two decent days in college football, going 2-1 on Friday night and 2-1 in the day games on Saturday. Positive units are always welcome.

First up on Sunday, Kansas City visits Cleveland in a short week road game. Clearly things are starting to look up in Kansas City as their cover on Monday was my only losing wager on MNF. Generally, I’m kind of adverse from taking a team in the week after they handed me a loss, but I’m making an exception this week. QB Matt Cassel wasn’t impressive, but he kept the Chargers D off balance enough to get yardage from Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Defensively, they are vastly improved, not only from a skill standpoint, but also speed. Then there is the special teams squad that made San Diego look silly.

Cleveland is Cleveland, and now with Jake Delhomme out, bringing Seneca Wallace a start at QB. I project a straight-win by KC, so getting points is gravy.

Take Kansas City +3 at Cleveland

Baltimore stepped up and took away the home opening win by Jets as I called it. But it was a battle. The Ravens left receivers open in the second half but Mark Sanchez couldn’t take advantage of it. Flacco was efficient, but the offense was fairly vanilla as we’ve come to expect around Flacco; while Ray Rice was held in check

Cincy showed composure and tried to fight back after going down early to New England. They say the biggest change in a team in the NFL happens between Week 1 and Week 2, and with Cincy, I think OchoCinco and TO are going to find their way. Carson Palmer started slow last week but found his rhythm late; he’ll continue this week. I do see a straight-up win by Cincinnati here today, so just like the KC game, the points are gravy.

Take Cincinnati +2.5 v. Baltimore

I’m not sure what is going on with Arizona but I don’t like the look of where they are headed. Kurt Warner departed to try his hand at ballroom dance. Leinart was sent packing and Derek Anderson was given the starting nod. Beanie Wells is a game-time decision, leaving roughly the same team than squeaked by St. Louis last week.

Atlanta is also banged up, with late word out that WR Micheal Jenkins is a no-go. QB Matt Ryan couldn’t get things going and RB Michael Turner spun his wheels on 19 carries only gaining 42 yards. I think the line is high, but not enough to take the dog. Low scoring is my projection, in the neighborhood of 20-13 by ATL, and with the total at 43; I like the UNDER play.

Take the UNDER (43) Arizona at Atlanta

I had some solid leans this week as well, and may convert these to plays depending line movements, but here they are for your handicapping help:

  • Seattle +3 at Denver (wondering if SEA’s offense was fluke last week)
  • Houston -3 at Washington (remove mistakes and Dallas should have won, Houston has talent)
  • New York Jets +3 v. New England (questions on Jet’s containment of Welker)

2010 Season Football Results (one late game pending on 9/18):
NCAA: 8-6-1, +1.20 Units*, 57%
All NFL: 5-3-1, +1.70 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 3-1, +1.90 Units, 75%

*double unit loss on UConn factored in.

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