The Giants head to Jerryville, bringing with them a renewed outlook on the season as they’ve managed to correct the offensive issues that plagued them in their first 3 games averaging over 26 points per game over the last three vs. an average of 18 over the first three games. Defensively, they are believers in their new defensive set and that will the play the spoiler the more they get used to it.

Dallas is a team in trouble. 1-4 to start the season. Admittedly, their record may be a misnomer as four of their five opponents are leading (or in a virtual bye-week tie) their respective division. The offense behind Tony Romo is decent, but turnovers have plagued the ‘boys this year.

I think the Giants defense will hold the Cowbow offense in check and might even sneak away with the straight-up win. New York 31 – Dallas 24

Take New York Giants +3.5 at Dallas
Take the OVER (45.5)

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Favorite: Tennessee -3
O/U: 44.5

I like the much improved Vince Young this season and combined with Chris Johnson in the backfield, you have the potential for an offensive explosion. Meanwhile Jacksonville is a run-dominant team behind MoJo Drew, yet just as capable in the air with David Garrard. These teams are about as evenly matched as they come. With the lone exception being Jacksonville’s pourus defense. In their last four games, they are giving up an average of 30 points per game en route to a 2-2 record. For Tennessee, they’ve given up 20 points per game over the last four games en route to the sme 2-2 record. It is also worth noting that Jacksonville is -3 on the season in turnovers.

Tough call tonight, but the Jags have never scored north of 30 in 3 straight games. Tennessee is also 2-0 on the road. I like Tennessee 27-21 which also tags the Over.

Take Tennessee -3 at Jacksonville
Take the OVER (44.5)

1-2 in Sunday NFL. Continuing the dismal trend that started last week. Comforted by the fact that I am nailing college football at the moment; and that everyone is struggling in the NFL this year with the inconsistency. Cincy hammered by turnovers for the second week in a row. San Diego puts up 509 yards of total offense and loses by 8 (again with turnovers). If anything, it is a perfect example why bankroll management is so important.

So how about Monday Night Football tonight?

Minnesota at New York Jets
Favorite: New York Jets -4.5
O/U: 39.5

So Randy Moss is the new savior in Minneapolis. 5 days in the system shouldn’t be a problem for his routes but may cause some issues in rush schemes. But, Revis is back for the Jets and if there is a time where a shut-down corner is needed, tonight is it. New York also gets Santonio Holmes back tonight which improves the downfield passing attack, and should also open up the running game a bit more. The Jets also sit at +8 on the season in turnovers while Minnesota is -3.

With Moss in the Vikings lineup, on paper it adds a weapon. But Favre has clearly lost a step this season, is battling an injury, and now has TextGate to deal with. I have my doubts that the Vikings will be able to get things going offensively. For the Jets, getting Revis back is what they need. They are currently 3-1 against the spread this year, and Tomlinson is running like he did a couple of years ago. I think big plays are on tap tonight and expect a big win by New York, 27-16

Take New York Jets -4.5 v. Minnesota Vikings.
Take the OVER 39.5

I’ll get season unit wins/losses updated and posted in weekend recap post tomorrow. I think NFL is down 4 and change, while NCAA is up in the 6 range.

Suffered quite a bit yesterday in the NFL and managed to wipe out on my mountain bike yesterday afternoon on some single track. Knocked myself in to a Cutler-like concussion. Good times with the double whammy.

On to tonight. One key tonight, pass defense. Miami has it, New England doesn’t. I think the Dolphins will be able to take away Wes Welker in the short game and handle Randy Moss deep since the Patriots are lacking a run game right now. You can pick up the Dolphins from +1 to +2 at most books right now, with the total sitting at 48.

I like the Dolphins straight up, in the neighborhood of 24-21. And as you can see, by that projection, a pretty solid lean to the Under.

Take Miami +1 v. New England
Take the UNDER (48)

Green Bay at Chicago
Favorite: Green Bay -3.5
O/U: 46.5

Last year Green Bay took both games against Chicago 15-21 and 14-21. That is a prety good barometer of how this game will play out tonight. My opinion of Chicago is still out and I think last week’s win against Dallas said more about Dallas than it did about Chicago. Cutler is still a gun slinger but the Packers have improved in the secondary. I won’t be surprised to see a couple picks from Green Bay especially since Chicago offensive coordinater Mike Martz dismisses the occasional interception as part of his game plan.

The biggest key though is going to be at the line, I don’t expect much running room from either team; the Packers without Ryan Grant, and Chicago who is generally unable to the get the running game going anyway.

I project a bit of a scoring increase over last season, but still ducking under the total: Green Bay 26 – Chicago 17

Take Green Bay -3.5 at Chicago
Take the UNDER (46.5)

I also released a baseball pick today on Twitter (@football_picks).

2010 Season Football Results:
NCAA: 11-8-1, +2.00 Units*, 57.9%
All NFL: 10-6-1, +3.40 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 4-2, +1.80 Units, 75%

*includes multi-unit plays.