Sunday NFL Picks – 9/19/10

I’ve had two decent days in college football, going 2-1 on Friday night and 2-1 in the day games on Saturday. Positive units are always welcome.

First up on Sunday, Kansas City visits Cleveland in a short week road game. Clearly things are starting to look up in Kansas City as their cover on Monday was my only losing wager on MNF. Generally, I’m kind of adverse from taking a team in the week after they handed me a loss, but I’m making an exception this week. QB Matt Cassel wasn’t impressive, but he kept the Chargers D off balance enough to get yardage from Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Defensively, they are vastly improved, not only from a skill standpoint, but also speed. Then there is the special teams squad that made San Diego look silly.

Cleveland is Cleveland, and now with Jake Delhomme out, bringing Seneca Wallace a start at QB. I project a straight-win by KC, so getting points is gravy.

Take Kansas City +3 at Cleveland

Baltimore stepped up and took away the home opening win by Jets as I called it. But it was a battle. The Ravens left receivers open in the second half but Mark Sanchez couldn’t take advantage of it. Flacco was efficient, but the offense was fairly vanilla as we’ve come to expect around Flacco; while Ray Rice was held in check

Cincy showed composure and tried to fight back after going down early to New England. They say the biggest change in a team in the NFL happens between Week 1 and Week 2, and with Cincy, I think OchoCinco and TO are going to find their way. Carson Palmer started slow last week but found his rhythm late; he’ll continue this week. I do see a straight-up win by Cincinnati here today, so just like the KC game, the points are gravy.

Take Cincinnati +2.5 v. Baltimore

I’m not sure what is going on with Arizona but I don’t like the look of where they are headed. Kurt Warner departed to try his hand at ballroom dance. Leinart was sent packing and Derek Anderson was given the starting nod. Beanie Wells is a game-time decision, leaving roughly the same team than squeaked by St. Louis last week.

Atlanta is also banged up, with late word out that WR Micheal Jenkins is a no-go. QB Matt Ryan couldn’t get things going and RB Michael Turner spun his wheels on 19 carries only gaining 42 yards. I think the line is high, but not enough to take the dog. Low scoring is my projection, in the neighborhood of 20-13 by ATL, and with the total at 43; I like the UNDER play.

Take the UNDER (43) Arizona at Atlanta

I had some solid leans this week as well, and may convert these to plays depending line movements, but here they are for your handicapping help:

  • Seattle +3 at Denver (wondering if SEA’s offense was fluke last week)
  • Houston -3 at Washington (remove mistakes and Dallas should have won, Houston has talent)
  • New York Jets +3 v. New England (questions on Jet’s containment of Welker)

2010 Season Football Results (one late game pending on 9/18):
NCAA: 8-6-1, +1.20 Units*, 57%
All NFL: 5-3-1, +1.70 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 3-1, +1.90 Units, 75%

*double unit loss on UConn factored in.

 

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Weekend Recap

I suffered a bit in college football. Kansas rebounded from the worst loss in school history to upend Georgia Tech. Oklahoma jumped up and bit Florida State, over and over again. The Big12 is usually my strongest conference, but given this is week 2, I’m not really concerned. For the weekend I was 1-2 with two plays being 2 unit plays. Down -1.30 units on the week, and to a down -1.50 units on the season. Some good games on the board this week, let’s try and push this number positive.

I started out week 1 of the NFL on down note on Thursday with a loss on the Over and a push on the side. I recovered on Sunday with a 2-1 day and found the green on Monday night going 3-1 on side and total of the combined Monday Night games.

I expected a slow start from San Diego, but was taken aback by the improvement of Kansas City’s defense and their Special Teams resurgence, lost the side but still took home the under. Results of the week: 5-3-1, good for +1.7 units on the weekend and starting out with a win percentage of 62.5% after dropping the push.

I Tweeted a baseball pick today if that is your cup of tea and will try to sprinkle a few more here and there as the season winds down.

2010 Season Results:
NCAA: 3-4-1, -1.50 Units, 42.8%
All NFL: 5-3-1, +1.70 Units, 62.5%
MNF-specific: 3-1, +1.90 Units, 75%

Monday Night Football Picks – Week 1

Monday Night Football – Early Game
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Favorite: New York Jets -1.5 (opened -3)
O/U: 36

The Ravens still have a world-class defense, but will feel the strain without safety Ed Reed. However, QB Joe Flacco now has options and the addition of Boldin and Houshmanzadeh will help balance Ray Rice’s running game.

Mark Sanchez has been less than sharp in the pre-season and the strong Jet defense doesn’t have the depth it has had in the past. Getting Darrelle Revis back will help the secondary, but I don’t see him at 100% just quite yet. Sure the cornerback spot is made up of athletics and reaction/response, but lacking the preseason experience this year might open up a play two to his side that would have been broken up last year. Give him a couple weeks and he’ll be right back in the mix.

I see Baltimore with a straight up win, 17-13 to ruin the Jet’s home opener.

Take Baltimore +1.5
Take the UNDER (36)

Monday Night Football – Late Game
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Favorite: San Diego Chargers -4.5
O/U: 44.5

San Diego, losing LT in the offseason, Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson are holding out. But still, the Chargers have a prolific air attack with Philip Rivers, and rookie RB Ryan Mathews had a solid performance in the preseaon. I don’t think the Chargers are where they need to be for the season, but against Kansas City that may be enough.

The Chief’s are trying to become the Midwest Patriots having brought in Todd Haley last year, and with him, QB Matt Cassel. In the off-season, failed Notre Dame head coach and former architect of the Patriot offense, Charlie Weis was brought in. Is Kansas City turning the corner? Perhaps, but last year San Diego beat KC by 30 points and by 29 points.

Like I said, I don’t think San Diego is where they need to be, but if they are half as efficient against KC tonight as they were last year, this is still a 15 point game. I see a San Diego win at 23-16.

Take San Diego -4.5
Take the UNDER (44.5)

2010 Season Results:
NCAA: 3-4-1, -1.50 Units
NFL: 2-2-1, -.2 Units

Free NFL picks for 9/12/10

Opening weekend in the NFL. Single unit plays on the following. Remember both side and total available for both Monday Night Football games will be on the site by 2:00 pm EDT on Monday.

To the picks:
Take Indianapolis -1 at Houston
Take Jacksonville -1.5 v. Denver
Take Miami -3 at Buffalo

2010 Season Results:
NCAA: 3-4-1, -1.30 units
NFL: 0-1-1, -1.00 unit

Vikings – Saints | Thursday Night NFL Opener

A rematch of last year’s NFC championship game. Injuries hampering the Vikes to start the season. Saints unveiling the Super Bowl Championship banner.

Take New Orleans Saints -5 v. Minnesota (2-Unit play!)
Take the OVER (48.5)

The Total has dropped from an opening 51.5, on the worries of the banged up Minnesota receiveing crew. I counter that with the pourous Saints defense and the Vikes should be able to put up 21 on them without much issue. I’m projecting a 33-21 win by New Orleans. Also, the Saints are 10-0 in their last 10 season openers.

Odds accurate from BetUs.com as of 11:00am EDT

2010 Season Results:
NCAA: 2-2-1, -.02 units
NFL: 0-0-0, Even

What’s Up With GridIronPicks.com

Bad News First:
No premium pick packages to start the 2010 season. I made a decision a couple weeks ago to provide trends & research on a contract basis to an online casino and to a relatively well known sports handicapping service. I’m not becoming a “personality,” not giving definitive picks and I don’t have a stake in their take, so the “who” is inconsequential.

Now the Good News:
While I’m not having season premium packages, I will be having occasional single game and weekend packages.

I’ll also still have free picks each and every weekend, including tonight:

Take USC -18 at Hawaii, and throw a unit on the Over (51)

And there is Monday Night Football. I’ll be giving away every single Monday Night Football pick in 2010. How big of a deal is that? Over the last 8 seasons, I am a combined 76% on the Monday Night side.

So really, what is the real scoop?
I’ve always been willing to share information about sports handicapping, the gambling industry, and other business endeavors as many of my long-time customers will attest to. GridIronPicks.com has always been a labor of love, but always just a side project. I’m also working towards a bigger goal and that is grassroots campaigning to get the online gambling ban reversed. Until I find my balance, I’d much rather focus on the research/trends/picks and set the site maintenance and customer service aspects to the side until I can find a balance.

Like I said, this site has always been a labor of love and I’ll still be here. Comments or questions? Feel free to hit me up via tristan@gridironpicks.com or twitter at twitter.com/football_picks.